las vegas

September 10, 2007

Kind Of A Downward Spiral In Las Vegas

The Chicago Tribune reports on Nevada. "The upscale San Niccolo
neighborhood to the south of this city's bustling Strip once offered
the real estate equivalent of the town's loosest slots. The guy who
sold Karen Lewis her house for $435,000 in June 2006 raked in a
$200,000 profit after holding it less than two years, she figures.
'Houses were really cheap. Loans were really easy,' said Lewis, who
moved from California. 'These were investors who didn't ever live
here. Now, they're totally walking away.'"

"Those who failed to cash out ahead of the bust have left
owner-occupants such as Lewis stranded in a lonely landscape. Almost
half of the 30,000 homes listed for sale in the Las Vegas metropolitan
area stand vacant, making it that much tougher to sell the rest, said
Frank Nason, president of Las Vegas real estate firm Residential
Resources."

"'It's kind of a downward spiral,' he said. 'In the next year or two,
it could get a heckuva lot worse.'"

"From her front door, Lewis stares across Arcata Point Avenue at the
for-sale signs on two abandoned houses in foreclosure. The house next
door stood empty for months as well."

"Lewis said she intends to stick it out. Anyway, she added, 'I'm sort
of stuck. If I were to move, I would take a bit of a loss.'"

In Business Las Vegas. "Las Vegas Realtor Eric Young prides himself on
being a numbers guy, and when it when comes to the local housing
market, the numbers paint an awful picture."

"In the last six weeks, the average home prices are down 2.6 to 3.5
percent, Young said. The price per square foot that many homes are
selling for today is the same as it was in early 2004 when the market
was still appreciating, he said."

"'It is far worse than the numbers are showing,' said Young, echoing
what a few others have been saying about statistics on the housing
market. 'If you start to dig into the numbers, the research shows the
prices for the same home are declining greater than the averages are
showing.'"

"A North Las Vegas house a client bought a year ago for $399,000
couldn't sell for $350,000 Young said. Comparable homes sold for
$310,000 to $320,000, prompting the owner to take it off the market,
he said."

"A home the same person sold a year ago in North Las Vegas for
$320,000 is on the market today for $247,000, Young said."

"'We continue to see an increase in listings every single day,' Young
said. 'The supply is growing and the number of closings are declining
every month. We now have a situation where you have a breakdown in the
mortgage market. It is difficult to see when that will turn around.
Clearly the market is not going to turn around until the mortgage
situation is straightened out. And the easy credit is never coming
back.'"

"The high rise and mid-rise condo markets continue to weaken as demand
has softened and supply continues to increase - a problem that will
worsen as more and more projects come on line in the next year,
analysts said."

"Las Vegas is facing problems that are emerging in other markets and
are a byproduct of the speculative boom of 2004 and 2005. Buyers who
signed contracts two to three years ago may not be able to close when
those projects are completed. In some cases, they may not be able to
get financing from lenders and in other cases buyers may walk away."

"'We are hearing the potential that some of the units aren't going to
close,' said John Restrepo, principal of Restrepo Consulting Group
that tracks the condominium market. 'Some people are walking away
because of the credit markets or because what they agreed to pay is
not what they thought it would be worth today.'"

"There are 5,849 luxury condominium units in Las Vegas and another
14,149 units under construction, according to Applied Analysis. By the
end of the second quarter, 718 resale luxury units were on the market,
Applied Analysis reported."

"'I hear from condo owners every single day. They bought it to flip it
and they can't sell it,' added Eric Smith, owner of Colorado-based
Corporate Housing By Owner."

"Bruce Hiatt, co-owner/broker of Luxury Realty Group, said he expected
a window of about 12 months in which there would be an oversupply of
condos, calling it the 'perfect storm.'"

The Las Vegas Business Press. "The Falconi Group recently named its
third general contractor for the planned $740 million, 1,100-unit
condominium-hotel development at Tropicana and Cameron avenues, across
from The Orleans."

"Dick Pacific Construction's involvement has since lowered the project
price by 13 percent. Pinnacle Las Vegas was cited as an $850 million
development in July. Yet the basic makeup of Pinnacle Las Vegas hasn't
changed."

"Pinnacle Las Vegas comes during a market adjustment with a glut of
available inventory and several project cancellations. 'Buyers want a
prime location for the cost they are paying and they can get real good
deals,' said Bruce Hiatt, owner of a Las Vegas high-rise residential
specialist. 'If it's not well-located and branded, projects are going
to face challenges. There is about two years of resale market
inventory.'"

"'Only 12.9 percent of the market's planned 27,268 luxury
high/mid-rise condo units had been completed in the second quarter,
whereas 49.5 percent had been canceled or suspended,' says John
Restrepo, principal of Restrepo Consulting Group."

The Review Journal. "The drumbeat of bad news on residential mortgages
continued, as the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that new
foreclosures and past-due loan numbers increased in Nevada during the
quarter ending June 30."

"Bill Ochs Jr., owner of Nevada Mortgage, blames a large portion of
the problem loans on investors. 'Speculators and investors came from
anywhere and everywhere just to see if they could make a fast buck (in
Nevada),' Ochs said."

"Now, speculators are defaulting on mortgage loans, he said,
mentioning one investor who allowed 40 single-family homes to go into
foreclosure."

"Southern Nevada's economy, dragged down by the slumping housing
industry, posted another month of modest performance. New and existing
home sales dropped 40 percent and new home permits are off by 45
percent, contributing to a 0.11 percent decline in the Southern Nevada
Index of Leading Economic Indicators."

"The number of new residents moving to Las Vegas dropped by
double-digit figures for the third consecutive month, to 6,168 in
July. Seeing all the vacant homes, Andrew Pugh of SellFastLV.com
wonders how many people are leaving Las Vegas, though he's certain
more people are coming than going."

"'It's just unfortunate we can't nail down the historical numbers and
really figure out if the current numbers are changing significantly,'
he said. 'My contention is that the lack of white-collar jobs and
relatively high housing costs would eventually slow down the
migration, but without good data, it's hard to know for sure.
Affordable housing was one of the big draws and now that's pretty much
gone, for now.'"

The Las Vegas Sun. "People lose homes in Las Vegas every day because
they can't pay the mortgage. But when real estate agents and brokers
start hitting the wall financially, it perhaps is a sign of even more
troubling trends in the home sales market."

"Jimmy Dague, who has sold real estate in Las Vegas since 1978 and
whose business was the No. 1 worldwide in sales for Century 21 from
2002 to 2006, filed last week for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection
from creditors while he reorganizes to pay off his debts."

"'This is the result of an exuberant market and us growing and,
honestly, I had signed leases for nine offices. Now I have five,' he
said. 'As you can imagine, the four landlords are not happy.'"

"A year ago, he said, 700 real estate agents worked in his nine
offices. Today, he has five offices and about 500 agents. He also has
cut 50 percent of his hourly staff."

"'Wow,' said Jeremy Aguerro, principal of Applied Analysis. 'Is it a
harbinger, a sign that our economy is shifting?'"

"The causes? Home prices inflated beyond the means of those who would
normally buy them, rising interest rates and a halt in buying by
investors."

"And in Dague's words, 'perception.' 'If someone thinks if they only
wait a few months, they'll be able to get that $400,000 house for
$350,000, they're going to wait it out,' he said."

"Are they right to do that? 'Right now, they probably are,' he said."